Models — the series
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Molecular orbital and valence bond
Two frameworks, taught as rivals, describing the same molecules. One starts from delocalised orbitals and localises; the other starts from localised bonds and delocalises. Pushed far enough they meet.
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Where molecular orbital theory dissociates
The molecular orbital description of a two-electron bond puts both electrons on the same atom half the time — at every bond length, including infinite. The exact answer falls from a half to 0.0039 as the atoms separate, and the point where the two standard models are equally wrong is exactly U = 4t.
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Two pictures, one plane
Molecular orbital theory and valence bond theory are taught as rival descriptions of a two-electron bond. In a model small enough to solve exactly they are two vectors in a two-dimensional space, the exact answer lies in the plane they span at every repulsion, and it is neither of them at any repulsion but two.
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A weight that depends on how it is weighed
The ionic character of a two-electron bond is quoted as a percentage. For one wavefunction at hydrogen's bond length, three conventions in the literature give 18.73, 34.74 and 5.88 per cent — a factor of six — and on a wavefunction with no ionic structure in it at all, one of them still reports a quarter.
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One spectrum, a line of models
Hückel theory has three parameters and benzene's photoelectron spectrum supplies two numbers, so the fit has a curve of solutions rather than a point. Along it the resonance integral runs from −3.05 to −7.66 electronvolts, the empty level moves by eight, the terminal-to-central bond order ratio in butadiene goes from 2.000 to 2.671 — and the delocalisation energy is 6.100 electronvolts in every member.
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A parameter that never finds a value
Show a two-parameter model six measurements instead of two and it stops being underdetermined and starts being wrong. Adding the third parameter improves the fit by one part in eighty, moves the resonance integral by a factor of four, and never finds a best value at all — because nine tenths of the error is a term the model does not have.
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Two systems a model cannot tell apart
Two molecules that share a Hückel eigenvalue but were measured to differ bound a whole family of models at 0.456 eV. That is a reusable instrument, and chemistry has plenty of predictors of exactly the same shape. Turned on themselves: VSEPR cannot account for 92 per cent of the variation in the four angles it predicts, and no fitting is involved anywhere.
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The pair that is not a tie
An exact tie bounds every model of a form with no fitting, and it is available only for predictors that read integers. A near tie bounds the model's derivative instead, and a pair the predictor orders the wrong way round refuses monotonicity outright. Run on four standard predictors, the new instrument ranks them in a different order from the old one — and its worst case is the control the old one could not see.
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The error bar that would be needed
Two things a pair of measurements can say without any model both treat their numbers as exact. The quoted measurements carry no uncertainties, and inventing some would be worse than having none — so the question is asked the other way round. Not what the errors are, but how large they would have to be. The three refutations that seemed most worrying turn out to be the sturdiest of the lot.
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The other end of the bracket is not a number
Every claim can be priced by the measurement error it would take to overturn it, assuming the two errors independent, and the correlated extreme ought to turn each price into a bracket. At perfect correlation between equally precise measurements the difference is exact and the price is infinite — and every price is multiplied by the same factor, so the ordering of prices cannot change.
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The ranking moved and the headline did not
One correlation applied across a collection multiplies every price by the same number, so it slides the fragility ordering rigidly and cannot scramble it. Give each predictor its own correlation and the ordering does move — but not at the top. The two most fragile claims come from the same predictor, share a factor, and are locked in order at every correlation whatever; the easiest swap anywhere below them needs only ρ = 0.15.
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Three chains and ninety orderings ruled out
Two claims priced against the same predictor share its error correlation, so no correlation structure can reorder them. That makes the collection's fragility ranking three chains rather than one list — and thirty of the hundred and twenty orderings of five claims are reachable, with the other ninety forbidden before a single measured difference is looked at.
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A denominator needs three currencies
Every price in this argument has been a price on a measured rise. A slope floor is a rise over a run, the run is computed rather than measured, and pricing it turns out to need three currencies rather than one — because one predictor's run is a graph eigenvalue, one is a convention, and one is a difference of square roots of integers that nothing defensible moves.
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A floor on models written in one scale
A tie asks whether two predicted values are equal and a discordance asks whether two differences have the same sign. Both are questions about order, and a strictly increasing change of scale preserves order — so both are exactly invariant under thirteen reparameterisations of all three predictors. The slope floor asks for a ratio of differences, and it moves by factors of nineteen, ten and eleven thousand.