Contour — the series
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Say what it encloses
An orbital picture is a contour at a level somebody chose, and almost no source says which. Two textbooks can draw the same orbital at visibly different sizes with the same caption, and both be printed in good faith.
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How big is an orbital
Four measures of size, all computed from the same radial function, all correct, and spanning a factor of two and a half for a 1s orbital. The one that governs chemistry is a fifth, and it is not a measure of size at all.
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One level is not one comparison
A plate of orbitals drawn at a single contour value looks like a comparison and is not one. At the level that encloses ninety per cent of a 1s, a 2s encloses four per cent, a 3s under one, and a 3d has no surface at all — its wavefunction never reaches that value anywhere in space.
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A filled shell has no shape
Sum the angular densities of a complete p shell and the answer is 3/4π in every direction, to sixteen decimal places. A filled d shell gives 5/4π. The lobes are in the decomposition and not in the density, and nothing that measures a closed-shell atom can see them.
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The isovalue nobody chose
Every program that draws an orbital asks for a number, and almost every user accepts the default. At 0.02 atomic units that default encloses 96 per cent of hydrogen's 1s, 52 per cent of its 2s and four tenths of one per cent of its 4s — three pictures drawn to one rule, meaning three completely different things.
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A slice is not the surface
The page is flat, so every printed orbital is a slice through a contour rather than the contour itself — and a curve that leaves a tenth of the density outside it in space leaves about a thirtieth outside it on the page. Both claims are true of the same picture and only one of them is ever stated.
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A bond is not two atoms overlapping
The surface enclosing ninety per cent of a σ orbital's density is one closed surface with both nuclei inside it, at a level of 0.0359. The two atomic surfaces usually drawn instead sit at 0.0394, are a different shape, and enclose 91.70 per cent of the same orbital — and whether the molecular one is one object or two is decided by the fraction the caption claims, anywhere between 2.1 and 5.2 ångström.
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The tenth that is not drawn
A ninety per cent contour of a hydrogen 1s orbital is a sphere of radius 2.661 bohr, and two of them stop touching at 5.322 bohr — where the overlap between the two orbitals is still 0.0768 and rising in importance. At a three-ångström contact, 36.9 per cent of the overlap integral lies outside both drawn surfaces, and holding nine tenths of it inside the picture would take a contour enclosing 97.28 per cent.
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The radius that was tabulated
A van der Waals radius is a fitted number that every structural argument in chemistry uses. Computing it instead — a repulsion taken from computed overlap integrals, an attraction taken from two measured scalars, and no length anywhere — puts helium's contact at 3.140 ångström against a tabulated 2.80, neon's at 3.226 against 3.08 and argon's at 3.996 against 3.76. And the surface two atoms actually stop at encloses 99.4 per cent of the density, not ninety.
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The surface a table draws
Three noble gases stop at a surface enclosing between 99.38 and 99.75 per cent of their density — a near-constant, and an argument that a contour is a real boundary. Charge the atoms and it collapses. Across ten electrons the tabulated radius encloses anything from 94.4 to 99.98 per cent, it peaks at the neutral rather than trending through it, and radii built at a fixed enclosure do not add up to a single measured separation.
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The surface a neighbour moves
An ion in a crystal sits in the field of the ion next to it, and that field moves its contour. The displacement has a closed form, it is checked against the polarisability it implies, and it turns out to be almost perfectly anti-correlated with the discrepancy it was proposed to explain — the pairs that need the most correction get the least.
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A control that outranked the mechanism
Ruling polarisation out left one candidate, and the closed-shell overlap ranks at 0.857 against the additivity shortfall — which looked like the answer until the control was read. The cation's formal charge, which cannot be a mechanism, ranks at 0.9524. Eight pairs split four and four by charge cannot separate anything, and within a charge group two candidates both rank perfectly.
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A size a confound cannot supply
A rank correlation of 0.857 was beaten by a control that cannot be a mechanism, so a size is the next thing to ask for: does a closed-shell repulsion of the computed magnitude displace two ions by the tenths of an ångström the additive radii are wrong by. It does not. The balance of a Madelung attraction against six computed repulsions predicts six separations to 0.242 ångström where adding two tabulated radii predicts them to 0.183, and the displacement it produces ranks at 0.14 against the shortfall it was proposed to explain.
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The residue that is two numbers
Is a shortfall between a sum of radii and a measured separation a property of the pairs, or of the compromise a universal table makes? The eight separations are two complete two-by-two blocks, so what no assignment of radii can reproduce is not a residual at all — it is an alternating sum, computed by subtraction, and it comes to three hundredths of an ångström and six.
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The residue is below its own noise
Two interaction terms, both negative, leave the sign a coin toss — and a larger block would settle it. There is a larger block: a model that needs no measured separations supplies twenty-one. It cannot settle anything, because a fourfold alternating difference of distances known to a quarter of an ångström cannot resolve three hundredths of one.
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The error was the row, not the charge
An ionic model checked against six measured separations has a wildly uneven error — under one per cent on two pairs, thirteen to eighteen on three others — and the pattern is not obviously size or charge. It is the row of the periodic table. Counting how many of a pair's two ions have a third-row valence shell separates the errors completely, with an eleven-point gap; counting the charge separates nothing.
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The sum of the exponents, not the softer ion
The row of the periodic table sorted an ionic model's errors into three groups, and a count that takes three values can say nothing inside a group. Made continuous, the variable the proposed mechanism names — how diffuse the softer ion is — carries no information: an oxide's 2p and a chloride's 3p have the same exponent to a hundredth. The sum of the two exponents carries nearly all of it, orders the middle group, and, asked about that group without having seen it, predicts its spread at twice the size.
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One contraction for two conditions
The ionic model's errors run with the row of the periodic table, and the test proposed for that — stiffen the repulsion and watch for second-row pairs moving out and third-row pairs moving in — produces exactly that pattern from a repulsion that knows nothing about shells. The test that can fail contracts the third-row shells alone and asks one factor to bring two different groups of pairs onto the second-row ones. The two factors needed are 1.35 and 1.38.
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Three contractions for one shell
One contraction of the third-row p shells removed the row pattern from an ionic model's errors, with two conditions met by factors 2.2 per cent apart, and left the order of three pairs untouched. Taken ion by ion, chloride needs 1.302, potassium 1.387 and calcium 1.441 — the pairs' own order — and potassium chloride, fitted on nothing, lands among the second-row pairs. The single factor's two conditions agreed because both were averages of these three.